El Nino may be a real thing after all?!

DariustheMede E.

@DariustheMedeCamden, Indiana, United States

El Nino may be a real thing after all?!

For months we have been hearing of a super, never before equaled El Nino. After many years hearing and not seeing any effect I was about to decide it was weathercaster hype- as so much turns out to be. But we have had much fairly abnormal rain in the past week or so. Not unpleasant; just a bit surprising after years of dry Augusts. And Septembers.

One county over to the east and south had 7+ inches (18 cm). That was not so pleasant, but was only local.

Have others found an El Nino yet?

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KAREN.BOEHLER B.

@KAREN.BOEHLERCuenca, Azuay, Equador

Not found AFAIK, but they are certainly preparing for it here in Ecuador.

And we did recently have an entire village wiped out by floods, and that was inland.

But right now, I'm more concerned about the earthquakes that are slowly moving south. (First Venezuela then Colombia. I'm hopingwe're not next.)

DariustheMede E.

@DariustheMedeCamden, Indiana, United States

Hmm, Ecuador and Peru are thought to be ground central for El Nino. (It hurts the fish business) and not sure about weather.

You are probably comfortable with earthquake, being from CA?

Ⓜ️🅰️®️ℹ️🅾️ D.

@GASPERDUPUYBuenos Aires, Buenos Aires F.D., Argentina

I completely understand where you're coming from, Darrell. As a city dweller, I certainly don't understand the complex meteorological science behind why El Niño brings torrential rains while La Niña brings severe droughts, but living through these patterns over the years makes the correlation impossible to ignore. It really makes you appreciate how crucial these forecasts must be for farmers when deciding what to plant and how to plan their seasons. Karen, regarding your concern in Ecuador with the recent tremors in Venezuela and Colombia: I've read reports explaining that these events stem from the movement of two distinct tectonic plates, but to be honest, I often take official news with a grain of salt. Media narratives and official statements can sometimes be managed simply to prevent mass panic, which leaves you wondering about the full picture.

In just two months, Latin America experienced three earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher. It's hard to believe there's no connection between them.

June 24, 7.5 magnitude in Venezuela
July 17, 7.3 magnitude in Mexico
August 10, 7.4 magnitude in Colombia

Stay safe out there!

KAREN.BOEHLER B.

@KAREN.BOEHLERCuenca, Azuay, Equador

Yes, used to earthquakes but not used to living in old brick buildings that have been remodeled but most likely will come down IF we have a big one. Kinda scary.

And yes, Ecuador and Peru are tops on the El Nino list. 😭

Ⓜ️🅰️®️ℹ️🅾️ D.

@GASPERDUPUYBuenos Aires, Buenos Aires F.D., Argentina

We must also add the earthquake of August 20th in Peru, magnitude 7.2!!!

David G.

@groodSydney, Nova Gales do Sul, Austrália

yes I understand El Nino ('the boy' in Spanish?) was named in Peru for the fishermen's noticing cold water upswell bringing the best catches of sardines or somesuch. In Australia I watch national ABC TV on Sundays - 'Landline' about farming, which always ends with weather forecasts, typically discussing ocean temperatures in both the Pacific (possible, now declared El Nino) and the Southern Indian Ocean dipole, which together influence temperature and rainfall across Australia.

I will never forget the sudden transformation I think 9th February 2020 from a 4 year drought culminating in red sky air pollution heat wave in Sydney surrounded by threatening bushfires, when within minutes the heaviest rain and strongest winds in 30 years turned Sydney into a flood zone, and by sheer luck I called an emergency plumber at exactly the right time before 20 minutes later there were none available, and was able to save my neighbour's balcony, filled to the brim with tree-root blocked major stormpipe backflow, from flooding his new carpet.

Then there's the confusion between Little Boy and Little Girl -

'El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño brings warmer central-eastern Pacific waters and drier, hotter weather with higher bushfire risks to eastern Australia. La Niña brings cooler Pacific waters and increased rainfall, higher flood risks, and more cyclones'

yet the US may experience the opposite -

'El Niño has opposite effects on Australia and California. Australia typically faces hotter, drier weather with high bushfire risks, while California usually receives increased winter rainfall, storms, and a higher flood risk. These contrasting impacts happen because warming Pacific waters shift global atmospheric jet streams and pressure systems differently across hemispheres'